How Lake Erie’s Freezing Affects Western New York's Snowfall

The last few days in Western New York have been pretty intense on the weather front. Now, not only has the region been hit with quite a bit of snow since last week, but temperatures have fallen well below freezing for several days. Now, while temps have risen to near-freezing for the last day or so, the Buffalo region will be back in the deep freeze before you know it.

Now, while the weather being so cold isn't something you look forward to, there has been one result that will eventually make some people happy.

On January 16, 2026, before we had that recent cold snap, Lake Erie only had ice covering around 30% of the water's surface. When you get cold air flowing over a relatively warm lake, you know that means Lake Effect Snow. However, when you get several days of single-digit temperatures, Lake Erie can quickly begin to freeze over. As of January 21, 2026, the lake was more than 80% covered by ice.

But with Lake Erie nearly fully covered with ice, we should soon see a big decrease in the amount of Lake Effect Snow that has been hitting parts of Western New York. Especially since another cold blast is coming to Buffalo

What Is Lake Effect Snow

We talk a lot about Lake Effect Snow, but what is it exactly? According to the National Weather Service, Lake Effect Snow happens when:

...cold air, often originating from Canada, moves across the open waters of the Great Lakes. As the cold air passes over the unfrozen and relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes, warmth and moisture are transferred into the lowest portion of the atmosphere. The air rises, clouds form and grow into narrow band that produces 2 to 3 inches of snow per hour or more.
-National Weather Service

National Weather Service

These lake effect bands directly lead to how you can have extremely heavy snow in one neighborhood and clear skies in another neighborhood.

KEEP READING: Thundersnow Rumbles All Over Western New York This Winter

Now, while Lake Erie is nearly frozen, which should reduce the amount of Lake Effect in parts of Western New York, Lake Ontario rarely freezes, so the chance of the phenomenon still exists. Plus, the Buffalo region will still see its fair share of general snowfall.