Explaining the Wild Card Playoff Scenarios for the Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills play the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday night, which will decide who wins the AFC East.

It's the first Sunday Night Football game in Miami for Bills/Dolphins in over 20 years and will wrap up the 2023 NFL regular season schedule.

The NFL weekend kicks off tomorrow, however. The Pittsburgh Steelers play at the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans play at the Indianapolis Colts.

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The Bills could be the 2 seed or out of the playoffs entirely. They could also wind up being the 6 or 7 seed. As for Miami, they can only be the 2 or 6 seed. That means hosting a wild card matchup or travel to play at the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let's break down how things fall, depending on outcomes of games this weekend in the AFC. Thanks to the ESPN playoff machine for the easy breakdown.

Here's how the Bills get the 2 seed (and it's easy):

Bills win Sunday in Miami.

This means the Bills will be the 2 seed and host either the Colts, Texans, Steelers or Jaguars.

To host the Colts: Indy has to beat Houston and the Jaguars have to win vs. the Tennessee Titans.

To host the Texans: Houston has to beat Indy and the Jaguars have to win vs. the Titans.

To host the Steelers: Pittsburgh beats Baltimore and the Titans beat the Jaguars OR Pittsburgh loses to Baltimore, Titans beat the Jaguars and the Denver Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders -- that's because the Steelers strength of victory would be better than the Jaguars and earn the 7th seed in this scenario. This would knock the Jags out, despite a Steelers loss vs. the Ravens. Pretty crazy.

To host the Jaguars: Tennessee beats Jacksonville, Ravens beat the Steelers and the Raiders beat the Broncos (Houston or Indy will win no matter what).

How the Bills get the 6 seed:

Bills lose to the Dolphins, Ravens beat the Steelers and the Titans beat the Jaguars.

This means the Bills will play at Kansas City once again in the playoffs.

How the Bills get the 7 seed:

Bills lose to the Dolphins, Steelers beat the Ravens and the Titans beat the Jaguars.

This means the Bills will travel to Miami in back-to-back weeks.

How the Bills miss the playoffs:

Bills lose to the Dolphins, Steelers beat the Ravens and the Jaguars beat the Titans.

The reason is because Pittsburgh and the team that finishes second in the AFC South (Houston or Indy) has a better conference record than Buffalo, which is the next tiebreaker after head-to-head. The Denver loss back in early November looms large here.

We will know for sure what happens by 11:30 pm on Sunday night.